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Ganita ManjariCh 7 Shayad ka Ganit: Probability ka Introduction

The Mathematics of Maybe: Introduction to Probability (Shayad ka Ganit: Probability ka Introduction): Class 9 Maths Chapter 7 Hinglish mein

Ganita Manjari Part 1 · Hinglish notes, simulations aur practice · Official NCERT chapter PDF ↗

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  • 82 min
  • 3 simulations
  • 31 practice questions
  • 32 MCQs

Is chapter mein aap kya seekhenge

  • Random experiment ko describe karo aur samjhao ki har possible result pata hone par bhi uska result predict kyun nahi kiya ja sakta
  • Events ko 0 (impossible) se 1 (certain) tak ke probability scale par rakho, aur probabilities ko fractions, decimals aur percentages mein likho
  • Trials ya survey data se kisi event ki experimental probability (relative frequency) nikaalo, aur sample ki madad se poori population mein counts ka estimate lagao
  • Jab saare outcomes equally likely hon, tab kisi event ki theoretical probability calculate karo
  • Samjhao ki experimental aur theoretical probabilities alag kyun aati hain, bahut saare trials mein woh paas kaise aa jaati hain, aur pichhle results agle result ko kyun nahi badalte
  • Sample spaces aur events ko sets ki tarah likho aur unke elements gino
  • Do ya teen stages wale experiments ke liye tree diagrams banao, replacement ke saath ya bina, aur unse probabilities nikaalo

NCERT Mathematics Class 9, Chapter 7, pp. 155–173 par based original companion text. Yeh NCERT se juda nahi hai aur NCERT ne ise endorse nahi kiya hai.

7.1 Probability kya hai?

Kya aaj subah school bus late aayegi? Kya hamari team kal ka kho-kho final jeetegi? Jab class planetarium trip ki ek extra seat ke liye parchi nikaalegi, to kya tumhari chit niklegi? In sawaalon ka jawab koi bhi poore bharose se nahi de sakta. Har sawaal ke kuch possible jawab hain, aur hamein intezaar karna padta hai ki asal mein kaunsa hota hai.

Length ke liye ruler hai aur mass ke liye balance. Probability (प्रायिकता) woh tool hai jisse mathematics chance ko ek number deta hai: koi cheez hone ki kitni sambhavna hai. Iski madad se hum bas kandhe uchkaane ke bajaye ek “shayad” ko doosre “shayad” se compare kar sakte hain.

Aisi situations random hoti hain. Possible results pehle se pata hote hain; asli result nahi. Roz ki baatchit mein hum aisi situations ko impossible, unlikely, fifty–fifty, likely aur certain jaise shabdon se describe karte hain.

Aise andaaze aate kahan se hain? Cricket match se pehle do dost result par behas karte hain. Ria ko lagta hai ki uski team shayad jeetegi, kyunki uske spinners ko yeh pitch bahut pasand hai. Imran ko shak hai, kyunki doosri team ke openers zabardast form mein hain. Dono same facts ko apne-apne tareeke se tol rahe hain. Kisi ki apni samajh se kisi situation ko dekhkar lagaya gaya aisa andaaza subjective probability kehlata hai. Do samajhdaar log is par alag-alag soch sakte hain.

Kya hum andaaze se behtar kar sakte hain? Is chapter mein hum chance naapne ke do objective methods banayenge: ek data use karta hai, doosra dhyaan se ginti karta hai. Usse pehle hamein saaf samajhna hoga ki random ka matlab kya hai, aur chance naapne ke liye ek scale bhi chahiye.

7.1.1 Randomness kya hai?

Ek dabbe mein apne classmates ke naam wali chits hilao aur ek nikaalo. Tum har woh naam list kar sakte ho jo nikal sakta hai, phir bhi koi nahi bata sakta ki is baar kiska naam niklega. Is andar se hi maujood unpredictability ko randomness kehte hain.

Definition
Random experiment

Aisa kaam jise hum same conditions mein baar-baar kar sakte hain. Hamein possible results ki list pata hoti hai, lekin kisi ek try ka result nahi.

ExampleDie roll karna: result 1 se 6 mein se koi ek hoga, lekin kaunsa, yeh hum nahi bata sakte.

Random experiment ki har ek try ek trial (अभिप्रयोग) hai, aur har possible result ek outcome hai. Fig. 7.1 dekho. Die ke chhe faces shuru karne se pehle hi pata hote hain. Lekin rolls khud bina kisi pattern ke idhar-udhar uchhalte hain, aisa koi pattern nahi jisse agla roll predict ho sake.

4/4Agle roll mein chhe mein se koi bhi face aa sakta hai.

Fig. 7.1Hum roll ka har possible result list kar sakte hain, lekin yeh nahi bata sakte ki agla kaunsa aayega.NCERT p. 156

Upar wali row mein die ke saare chhe faces hain, ek se chhe tak, jo hamein roll karne se pehle pata hain. Neeche asli rolls ke liye aath slots ki row hai; aakhri slot mein question mark hai. Pehle step mein abhi kuch roll nahi hua. Doosre step mein pehle teen slots mein paanch, do aur phir paanch aate hain. Teesre step mein saat rolls dikhte hain: paanch, do, paanch, chhe, ek, ek aur teen, jinmein koi pattern nahi hai. Aakhri step mein chhe ke chhe faces se question-mark slot tak dashed lines jaati hain, jo dikhati hain ki agla koi bhi face aa sakta hai.

Ek fair coin toss karo. Kisi bhi face ko koi advantage nahi hai, isliye chances barabar bante hain. Hum heads ko 12 probability dete hain aur tails ko 12 probability. Kisi random experiment ke possible results ko aise numbers dena hi mathematics ki us branch ka kaam hai jise probability kehte hain. Yeh numbers batate hain ki har result kitna likely hai; yeh kabhi promise nahi karte ki tumhe kaunsa result milega.

Baarish bhi random experiment jaisi behave karti hai. Kal tumhari gali tak baarish pahunchegi ya nahi, yeh is par tika hai ki hawa ka ek bahut bada hissa kaise move karta hai, garam hota hai aur thanda hota hai. Shuru ki conditions ko zara sa bhi badlo, to computer forecast kaafi alag aa sakta hai. Isiliye weather service kabhi baarish ka promise nahi karti: woh baarish ka chance batati hai, jo uske models aur saalon ke records se nikaala jaata hai.

Quick check
3 mein se 1
Inmein se kaunse random experiments hain?
Saare sahi options chuno
Answer dekho
Answer
  • (A) Pehle kaun batting karega, yeh tay karne ke liye coin toss karna
  • (C) Naamon ke dabbe se ek chit nikaalna
  • (D) Ludo ke game mein die roll karna
Toss, chit aur die, teeno har baar alag result de sakte hain, aur koi pehle se nahi bata sakta ki kaunsa. Calculator 7 + 5 ke liye hamesha 12 dikhata hai, isliye uska result keys dabaane se pehle hi pata hai.

7.1.2 Probability Scale

Har probability 0 se 1 tak ka ek number hoti hai. Ek sire par 0 un events ka hai jo ho hi nahi sakte; doosre sire par 1 un events ka hai jo hone hi hain. Baaki sab beech mein aate hain, aur jiska number 1 ke jitna paas, woh event utna zyada likely.

Probability scale
0≤P(E)≤1
jahan
P(E)
event E ki probability

Ek hi probability ko fraction, decimal ya percentage mein likh sakte hain. Maan lo ek weather app kal Chennai mein baarish ka chance 0.8 batata hai. Yeh 45 hai, yaani 80%, isliye baarish hone ki sambhavna na hone se zyada hai. 0.5, yaani 50%, probability ka matlab hai ki event aur uska ulta dono equally likely hain: ek even chance.

Fig. 7.2 isko picture mein dikhata hai. Ek jar mein das marbles hain, kuch blue aur baaki orange, aur hum bina dekhe ek nikaalte hain. Har baar jab ek orange marble ki jagah blue marble rakhte hain, blue ka chance scale par ek-dasvaan aage khisakta hai. Das blue marbles hone par yeh 1 tak pahunch jaata hai.

2/5Das mein se teen blue: less likely, P=0.3.

Fig. 7.2Das marbles mein jitne zyada blue, blue nikalne ka chance scale par utna upar.NCERT Fig. 7.1 · p. 158

Ek jar mein das marbles hain, har ek ya to blue ya orange; orange wale dashed outline ke hain aur blue wale solid aur chamakdaar. Uske neeche ek scale hai jo 0 (impossible) se 0.5 (even chance) hote hue 1 (certain) tak jaata hai, har dasve hisse par ek tick ke saath. Step one mein koi marble blue nahi hai aur pointer 0 par hai: impossible. Step two mein das mein se teen marbles blue hain aur pointer 0.3 par aata hai: less likely. Step three mein paanch blue hain aur pointer 0.5 par hai: even chance. Step four mein aath blue hain aur pointer 0.8 par hai: more likely. Step five mein saare das blue hain aur pointer 1 tak pahunchta hai: certain.

Table 7.1Probability scale par rakhe kuch eventsNCERT p. 158
EventScale par jagahKyun
Sirf red balls wale bag se green ball nikaalnaimpossible (0)Nikaalne ke liye koi green ball hai hi nahi.
52 playing cards ke poore pack se king nikaalnaless likely52 cards mein se sirf 4 kings hain.
Die par even number aanaeven chance (0.5)Chhe faces mein se teen, 2, 4 aur 6, even hain.
Die par 1 se zyada aanamore likelyChhe faces mein se paanch 1 se bade hain.
Die par 7 se chhota number aanacertain (1)Har face par 7 se chhota number hai.
Quick check
4 mein se 1
Inmein se kaunsi probability aise event ko describe karti hai jiske hone ki sambhavna na hone se zyada hai?
Answer dekho

Answer (C) 0.62

Sirf 0.62 hi 0.5 se bada hai. Theek 12 probability even chance hai, zyada likely nahi.
Practice · 1 question

Practice 7.1: answers ke saath

  1. Short answerEasyNCERT Exercise Set 7.1, Q1

    Har event ko probability scale par rakho: impossible, less likely, even chance, more likely ya certain chuno. Phir reason bhi do.

    1. Calendar se random chuna gaya mahina kam se kam 28 din ka hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer (E) certain

      February mein bhi 28 din hote hain, isliye har mahina is shart par khara utarta hai: event certain hai, probability 1.
    2. Agle birthday par tumhari umar aaj ki umar se kam hogi.

      Answer dekho

      Answer (A) impossible

      Umar sirf badhti hai, isliye yeh ho hi nahi sakta: probability 0.
    3. Ek baar toss kiya gaya fair coin heads par girta hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer (C) even chance

      Heads aur tails equally likely hain, isliye probability 0.5 hai.
    4. 52 cards ke poore pack se nikala gaya card spade nahi hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer (D) more likely

      52 mein se 39 cards spades nahi hain, isliye probability 3952=0.75 hai: hone ki sambhavna zyada hai, lekin certain nahi.
    5. Ek baar roll kiya gaya die 6 dikhata hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer (B) less likely

      Chhe faces mein se sirf ek par 6 hai, isliye chance 16 hai, jo 0.5 se kaafi neeche hai.

7.2 Probability ko Objectively Naapna

Subjective guess is par tika hota hai ki guess kaun kar raha hai. Probability ko ek fair measurement banane ke liye zaroori hai ki koi bhi check kar sake ki number kaise nikala gaya. Iske do main raaste hain.

  1. Jo hua, use gino. Khud bahut baar toss, roll ya spin karo, ya kisi ke pehle se rakhe records use karo. Phir dekho ki kitne hisse mein event hua. Woh hissa event ki experimental probability hai.
  2. Jo ho sakta hai, use gino. Agar set-up poori tarah balanced hai, to har outcome ko chance ka barabar hissa milna chahiye. Tab jin outcomes se event hota hai, unka hissa uski theoretical probability hai.
Compare

Probability tak pahunchne ke do raaste

Experimental (evidence se)

  • Trials ya recorded data chahiye.
  • Experiment dohraane par har baar answer badal sakta hai.
  • Tab bhi kaam karta hai jab outcomes equally likely na hon.

Theoretical (reasoning se)

  • Koi experiment nahi chahiye.
  • Hamesha same answer deta hai.
  • Sirf tab kaam karta hai jab outcomes equally likely hon.

7.2.1 Experimental Probability: Observations ya Experiments karke

Data ikattha karne se pehle yeh jaanna kaam aata hai ki hum asal mein gin kya rahe hain. Experiment jo bhi result de sakta hai, sab likho, list ko curly brackets mein rakho, aur tumhe uska sample space mil gaya, jise aksar S kehte hain. List ka har item ek outcome hai. Fig. 7.3 coin aur die ke sample spaces banata hai.

3/3Curly brackets mein ikatthe karne par outcomes sample space S banate hain.

Fig. 7.3Experiment ke saare outcomes list karne se uska sample space S milta hai.NCERT Fig. 7.2 aur 7.3 · p. 160

Do experiments aamne-saamne hain: left mein coin toss aur right mein die roll. Pehle step mein sirf ghoomta coin, jis par question mark hai, aur die dikhte hain. Doosre step mein har ek ke neeche possible outcomes aa jaate hain: coin ke liye head aur tail, aur die ke liye ek se chhe tak ke chhe faces. Teesre step mein outcomes ka har group S label wale box mein band ho jaata hai aur set ki tarah likha jaata hai: coin ke liye S barabar H, T aur die ke liye S barabar 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Example 1NCERT Example 1 · p. 160

Sample spaces list karna

Har experiment ka sample space likho. (a) Ek spinner ghumaana jiske chaar barabar hisse red, yellow, green aur blue rang ke hain. (b) 1 se 5 tak number wali chits ke dabbe se ek chit nikaalna. (c) Ek footballer ka ek penalty kick lena.

Pehle khud try karo. Phir solution ek-ek step karke kholo.

Ab maan lo hum sach mein ek experiment bahut baar karte hain aur ginti rakhte hain. Jitne trials mein hamara event hua, unka fraction uski experimental probability hai.

Definition
Experimental probability

Trials ka woh fraction jinmein event sach mein hua. Ise event ki relative frequency bhi kehte hain.

ExampleAgar bottle cap 40 flips mein se 13 baar top-up girta hai, to top-up ki experimental probability 1340=0.325 hai.

Experimental probability
experimental probability of E=trials jinmein E huatotal trials
Example 2NCERT Example 2 · p. 160

40 baar roll kiya gaya die

Kabir ek die 40 baar roll karta hai, aur 9 baar 6 aata hai. 6 aane ki experimental probability fraction, decimal aur percentage mein nikaalo.

Pehle khud try karo. Phir solution ek-ek step karke kholo.

Kabir ke rolls mein shabdon par dhyaan do. Wahi die 40 baar roll karne wale doosre student ko lagbhag pakka alag count milega. Experimental probability us data ko describe karti hai jo tumne sach mein ikattha kiya. Isiliye yeh science, sport aur business mein bahut kaam ki hai, jahan aksar records to bahut hote hain lekin koi saaf formula nahi hota.

SimulationCoin-toss lab

Ek virtual coin jise tum ek press mein 1, 10, 100 ya 1000 baar toss kar sakte ho. Ek line chart ab tak heads ka fraction tosses ki sankhya ke saath dikhata hai, aur comparison ke liye theoretical value 0.5 par ek dashed line hai.

Fig. 7.4Virtual coin ko batches mein toss karo aur heads ka fraction dekho.
Try karo
  • Ek baar mein 10 toss karo, paanch baar. Pehle 50 tosses mein line 0.5 se kitni door bhatakti hai?
  • Ab ek baar mein 1000 toss karo, kuch baar. Upar-neeche hilne ka kya hota hai?
  • Reset karke phir se shuru karo. Kya line ka shuru wala hissa pichhli baar jaisa hi hai?
Quick check
3 mein se 1
Ek bottle cap 80 baar flip kiya jaata hai aur 28 baar top-up girta hai. Top-up ki experimental probability kya hai?
Answer dekho

Answer 0.35

2880=0.35.

7.2.2 Theoretical Probability

Kabhi-kabhi hamein koi experiment chahiye hi nahi. Achhe se bana coin, balanced die aur ek jaisi, achhe se mili hui chits ke dabbe mein ek baat common hai: kuch bhi kisi ek outcome ka doosre se zyada saath nahi deta. Tab hum outcomes ko equally likely (समप्रायिक) kehte hain.

Definition
Equally likely outcomes

Aise outcomes jinke hone ka chance barabar ho, kyunki set-up mein kuch bhi kisi ek ka zyada saath nahi deta.

ExampleFair die ke chhe faces.

Jab outcomes equally likely hon, tab hum ginti karke probability nikaalte hain. Jin outcomes se event hota hai, unhe us event ke favourable outcomes kehte hain.

Theoretical probability (equally likely outcomes)
P(E)=number of outcomes favourable to Etotal possible outcomes ki sankhya

Kyunki yeh sirf reasoning se aati hai, theoretical probability har us insaan ke liye same hoti hai jo ise nikaalta hai. Yeh ek poori tarah balanced set-up ko describe karti hai aur batati hai ki bahut saare trials mein hamein kya expect karna chahiye, yeh nahi ki agla trial kya dega.

Example 3NCERT Example 3 · p. 161

Ek die ke teen events

Ek fair die ek baar roll kiya jaata hai. Probability nikaalo: (a) 2 aane ki, (b) 3 ka multiple aane ki, (c) 1 ke alawa koi number aane ki.

Pehle khud try karo. Phir solution ek-ek step karke kholo.

Shabd bhi dice ki tarah hi kaam karte hain. Fig. 7.5 mein ARUNACHAL (jaise Arunachal Pradesh mein) ka har letter apni alag tile par hai, aur bina dekhe ek tile chuni jaati hai.

2/33 favourable tiles, isliye P(A)=39=13.

Fig. 7.5Favourable tiles gino, phir saari tiles se divide karo.NCERT p. 161

Ek row mein nau tiles A, R, U, N, A, C, H, A, L likhti hain. Pehle step mein saari tiles ek jaisi dikhti hain aur ek brace batata hai ki 9 equally likely tiles hain. Doosre step mein teen A tiles upar uthti hain, green ho jaati hain aur un par tick marks lagte hain; text kehta hai ki 9 mein se 3 tiles par A hai, isliye A ki probability teen-bata-nau, yaani ek-tihaai hai. Teesre step mein chaar vowel tiles, teen A aur U, upar uthti hain, pink ho jaati hain aur un par tick marks lagte hain, jisse vowel ki probability chaar-bata-nau milti hai.

Example 4NCERT Example 4 · p. 161

Letter tile chunna

ARUNACHAL ke 9 letters ek jaisi tiles par likhkar ek bag mein mila diye gaye hain. Random tareeke se ek tile nikaali jaati hai. Probability nikaalo ki us par (a) letter A ho, (b) vowel ho, (c) letter Z ho.

Pehle khud try karo. Phir solution ek-ek step karke kholo.

Theory kehti hai ki fair die par 3 ka multiple aane ki probability 13 hai. Kya asli rolling isse match karti hai? Neeche wale lab mein test karo, pehle thode se rolls ke saath aur phir sainkdon ke saath.

SimulationDie-rolling lab

Ek virtual die jise tum ek press mein 1, 10, 100 ya 1000 baar roll kar sakte ho. Ek bar chart dikhata hai ki har face kitni baar aaya, ek-chhatha wale theoretical hisse par ek line ke saath, aur ek counter compare karta hai ki event '3 ka multiple' kitni baar hua aur uski theoretical probability ek-tihaai hai.

Fig. 7.6Virtual die roll karo aur har face ke hisse ko theoretical 16 se compare karo.
Try karo
  • 12 baar roll karo. Kya har face theek do baar aaya?
  • 600 baar roll karo. 3s aur 6s ka hissa 13 ke kitna paas hai?
Quick check
3 mein se 1
Ek bag mein same size ke 4 red, 5 green aur 3 white beads hain. Bina dekhe ek bead nikaala jaata hai. P(green) kya hai?
Answer dekho

Answer (B) 512

4+5+3=12 equally likely beads hain aur 5 green hain, isliye P=512. Lalchaane wala 57 green ko saare beads ke bajaye sirf baaki beads se compare karta hai.

7.2.3 Probability se Statistical Data ka Analysis

Bahut se events mein reasoning ke liye koi symmetry nahi hoti. Kya dukaan mein aane wala customer umbrella khareedega? Kya naye phone ki battery teen saal baad bhi charge pakdegi? Yahan imaandaar raasta data hai. Dukaandaar pichhle monsoon ki sales dekhkar umbrellas rakhta hai. Cricket analyst dekhta hai ki batter kitni baar spin par out hota hai. Doctor ginta hai ki ek trial mein kitne patients theek hue.

Example 5NCERT Example 5 · p. 162

Canteen ke breakfast ki planning

Ek school canteen Class 9 ke 60 students se unka favourite breakfast poochhti hai. Jawab hain: poha 21, idli 18, paratha 15 aur upma 6. (a) In 60 students mein se ek student random chuna jaata hai. Probability nikaalo ki us student ka favourite idli hai. (b) School mein 900 students hain. “Favourites day” par canteen ko lagbhag kitni plates poha ki planning karni chahiye?

Pehle khud try karo. Phir solution ek-ek step karke kholo.

3/3900 students tak scale up karne par: lagbhag 0.35×900=315 poha chunte hain.

Fig. 7.7Sample se probability milti hai; use 900 se multiply karne par poore school ka estimate milta hai.NCERT p. 162

Saath chhoti shapes canteen survey ke 60 students ko dikhati hain, ek legend ke saath: poha ke liye 21 circles, idli ke liye 18 squares, paratha ke liye 15 diamonds aur upma ke liye 6 triangles. Doosre step mein poha ke circles ko chhodkar har shape fade ho jaati hai, aur poha ki probability 60 mein se 21, yaani 0.35, dikhayi jaati hai. Teesre step mein 900 students ke poore school ke liye ek lambi bar aati hai, jiska 35 percent hissa shade hai, yeh dikhane ke liye ki lagbhag 315 students poha chunte hain aur lagbhag 585 kuch aur.

Jawab dene wale 60 students ek sample (प्रतिदर्श) banate hain. School ke 900 students woh population banate hain jiski hamein asal mein fikr hai. Sabse poochhna dheema aur mehenga hai, isliye hum ek sample ko study karte hain aur scale up karte hain, jaise Fig. 7.7 mein.

Agar saare 60 students Class 9 ke hote, to kya tum canteen ke plan par bharosa karte? Chhote bachchon ko shayad bilkul alag khaana pasand ho. Sample kaafi bada hona chahiye, aur usmein population ke har tarah ke members hone chahiye: yahan, har umar ke students. Is tarah dhyaan se sample chunne ko sampling kehte hain.

Lambe run mein experiment aur theory

Ek bilkul fair coin ko das baar toss karo, aur ho sakta hai tumhe 7 heads dikhein. Theory phir bhi 12 kehti hai, jabki tumhara data 0.7 kehta hai. Dono mein se koi galat nahi. Theoretical value ideal coin ko describe karti hai, aur experimental value in khaas das tosses ko. Itne kam tosses mein chance ke paas count ko idhar-udhar dhakelne ki bahut jagah hoti hai.

Jab trials badhte jaate hain, tab kya hota hai? Fig. 7.8 ek fair coin ke tosses ke ek lambe run ko follow karta hai. Shuru mein heads ka fraction uchhal-kood karta hai. Hazaaron tosses ke baad yeh theoretical value 0.5 se chipak jaata hai.

4/410 000 tosses ke baad: 0.5009, lagbhag bilkul aadha.

Fig. 7.8Fair coin ka ek lamba run: heads ka fraction shuru mein uchhalta hai, phir 0.5 ke paas tik jaata hai.NCERT p. 163

Ek line chart jismein neeche coin tosses ki sankhya hai, aise scale par jahan har mark pichhle se das guna hai (1, 10, 100, 1000 aur 10 000), aur side mein heads wale tosses ka fraction hai, 0 se 1 tak. Ek dashed line theoretical value 0.5 dikhati hai. Step one mein sirf pehle 10 tosses bane hain: fraction 1 se shuru hota hai aur 10 tosses ke baad 0.80 hai. Step two mein line 100 tosses par 0.56 tak pahunchti hai. Step three mein yeh 1000 tosses par 0.523 tak pahunchti hai. Step four mein yeh 10 000 tosses par 0.5009 tak pahunchti hai, lagbhag dashed line ke upar.

LawLaw of large numbers

Jab ek random experiment ko bahut zyada baar dohraaya jaata hai, to kisi event ki experimental probability uski theoretical probability ke aur paas, aur paas tikti jaati hai.

Yeh law fraction ke baare mein hai, raw count ke baare mein nahi. Dikhaye gaye run mein 10 000 tosses se 5009 heads aur 4991 tails aaye. Counts mein 18 ka farak hai, phir bhi heads ka fraction, 0.5009, 0.5 ke behad paas hai. Isiliye law of large numbers ko bahut saare trials chahiye.

Gambler's fallacy

Chance ke kisi game mein logon ko dekho, tum yeh zaroor sunoge: “Paanch heads aa chuke? Ab to tails aana hi hai!” Kisi streak ke baad yeh lagna ki ab koi result aane ka time ho gaya hai, itna aam hai ki iska ek naam hai, gambler's fallacy. Ise fallacy isliye kehte hain kyunki yeh seedha-seedha galat hai.

Yeh galat kyun hai? Coin ke andar kuch bhi yeh record nahi karta ki usne pehle kya kiya. Har toss wahi coin hai jo same conditions mein hawa mein ghoomta hai. Aise trials, jinmein pehle ke results ka baad wale results par koi asar nahi hota, independent kehlate hain. To paanch heads ke baad bhi agle toss par tails ki probability theek 12 hi hai, jaisa Fig. 7.10 dikhata hai.

3/3Streak se coin mein kuch nahi badalta: tails ki probability abhi bhi 12 hai.

Fig. 7.10Streak kitni bhi lambi ho, fair coin ka agla toss phir bhi fifty–fifty hai.NCERT p. 164

Paanch coins ki ek row, sab par heads ke liye H, uske baad toss 6 ke liye question mark wala ek dashed chhatha coin. Pehle step mein sirf streak dikhti hai. Doosre step mein ek thought bubble aata hai, jo kehta hai ki ab tails aana hi chahiye. Teesre step mein woh soch kaat di jaati hai aur us par galat likha jaata hai, aur neeche ek bar toss 6 ke chances barabar baant deti hai: heads 0.5 aur tails 0.5, bilkul pehle toss jaise chances.

To phir lambe run mein heads ka fraction 0.5 par kyun tikta hai? Isliye nahi ki tails “peechha karke barabar” kar leta hai, balki isliye ki streak ghul jaati hai. Paanch extra heads baad ke hazaaron tosses mein dub jaate hain, jo lagbhag aadhe-aadhe bante hain. Streak kabhi cancel nahi hoti; bas uska koi matlab nahi reh jaata.

Example 6NCERT Example 6 · p. 164

Ludo mein six ka intezaar

Ludo mein Tara ko token bahar nikaalne ke liye 6 chahiye. Woh 7 baar roll kar chuki hai aur ek bhi 6 nahi aaya. Uska bhai kehta hai, “Itni baar miss hone ke baad agla roll lagbhag pakka 6 hoga.” (a) Kya woh sahi hai? Uske agle roll par 6 aane ki probability kya hai? (b) Agle 60 rolls mein use lagbhag kitne 6s ki ummeed karni chahiye?

Pehle khud try karo. Phir solution ek-ek step karke kholo.

Definition
Fair (unbiased)

Ek coin, die ya spinner fair, yaani unbiased (अनभिनत), hota hai jab uska shape aur weight har outcome ko barabar chance dete hain. Toss ya roll random hota hai jab use koi control nahi karta: cheez lud-hadakti hai aur jaise bhi gire, gir jaati hai.

ExampleJis coin ke ek face par chewing gum ka tukda chipka ho, woh biased hai.

Quick check
4 mein se 1
Ek gaon ke 50 households ke sample mein 18 solar lamps use karte hain. Gaon mein 400 households hain. Unmein se lagbhag kitne solar lamps use karte hain?
Answer dekho

Answer 144

Sample se 1850=0.36 milta hai, aur 0.36×400=144.
Practice · 6 questions

Practice 7.2: answers ke saath

  1. NumericalEasyNCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q1

    Ek chudi bechne wala ek bade box se 40 chudiyon ka sample leta hai: 13 maroon, 12 pink, 9 golden aur 6 silver.

    1. Sample se random chuni gayi chudi ke golden hone ki probability ka estimate lagao.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.225

      940=0.225.
    2. Box mein 1000 chudiyan hain. Estimate lagao ki unmein se kitni silver hain.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 150

      640=0.15, aur 0.15×1000=150 silver chudiyan.
  2. NumericalMediumNCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q2

    1200 students wale school se random chune gaye pachaas students se poochha gaya ki woh aam taur par school kaise aate hain. Unke jawab: paidal 18, school bus 15, bicycle 12, car ya scooter 5.

    1. Sample ke kisi student ke cycle se school aane ki probability ka estimate lagao.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.24

      1250=0.24.
    2. School ke 1200 students mein se lagbhag kitne school bus se aate hain?

      Answer dekho

      Answer 360

      1550=0.3, aur 0.3×1200=360 students.
  3. ActivityEasyNCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q3

    Ek die 30 baar roll karo aur har result record karo.

    1. Tumhe kitni baar 5 mila?

      Solution dikhao

      Yeh tumhare apne rolls par depend karta hai. Lagbhag 2 se 8 tak ke counts aam hain. Sabse typical lagbhag 5 hai, kyunki 30×16=5.

    2. 5 roll karne ki apni experimental probability nikaalo.

      Solution dikhao

      Apne count ko 30 se divide karo. Jaise, 4 fives se 430≈0.133 milta hai.

    3. Tumhare agle roll par 5 aane ki probability kya hai?

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.1667

      Har roll pichhle rolls se independent hai, isliye P(5)=16≈0.167, chahe tumhare 30 rolls mein kuch bhi hua ho.
  4. ActivityMediumNCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q4

    Ek khaali matchbox 50 baar toss karo. Har baar record karo ki woh badi face par gira, lambi side par ya chhote end par.

    1. Apne results se girne ke har tareeke ki experimental probability batao.

      Solution dikhao

      Har count ko 50 se divide karo. Ek class ko badi face 38, lambi side 10 aur chhota end 2 mila, jisse 0.76, 0.2 aur 0.04 aaye. Tumhare numbers alag honge, lekin unka total 1 hona chahiye.

    2. Kya girne ke har tareeke ki probability 13 honi chahiye? Samjhao.

      Solution dikhao

      Nahi. Teeno outcomes equally likely nahi hain: badi face ek chaudi, tiki hui base hai, jabki chhota end patla aur dagmagata hai. Aisi cheezon ke liye sirf experiment hi hamein probabilities bata sakta hai.

  5. Quick answerEasyNCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q5

    Tum ek fair die ek baar roll karte ho. Prime number aane ki kitni sambhavna hai? Probability chuno.

    Answer dekho

    Answer (B) 12

    Die par primes 2, 3 aur 5 hain (1 prime nahi hai), isliye P=36=12.
  6. NumericalMediumNCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q6

    Ek fair spinner ke chaar barabar sectors hain jin par A, B, C aur D likha hai. Ravi ise 16 baar ghumata hai, aur yeh 7 baar C par rukta hai.

    1. C ki experimental probability kya hai?

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.4375

      716=0.4375.
    2. C ki theoretical probability kya hai?

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.25

      Chaar equally likely sectors mein se ek favourable sector: 14=0.25.
    3. Dono answers alag kyun hain? 40, 400 aur 4000 spins ke baad tum kya expect karoge?

      Solution dikhao

      Solah spins kam trials hain, isliye chance aasaani se C ko uske fair hisse se upar dhakel sakta hai. 40 spins par bhi fraction 0.25 se thoda door ho sakta hai. 400 aur phir 4000 spins ke baad yeh 0.25 ke aur paas, aur paas tikna chahiye, jaisa law of large numbers kehta hai.

7.3 Probability ke Elements: Sample Spaces aur Events

Ab hum ek jaane-pehchaane idea, set, ki madad se probability ki language ko aur exact banate hain.

7.3.1 Sample Space

Sample space ko usi tarah ka set samjho jaisa tum pehle se jaante ho: iske members experiment ke outcomes hain. Hum ise aam taur par S kehte hain. Iske members ki sankhya n(S) likhi jaati hai aur ise sample size kehte hain.Yahan sample size ka matlab hai S mein outcomes ki sankhya. Survey mein yahi shabd poochhe gaye logon ki sankhya ke liye use hote hain.

Definition
Sample space

Random experiment se aa sakne wala har outcome, ek set mein ikattha, jise aam taur par S kehte hain. Iske elements ki sankhya n(S) likhi jaati hai.

ExampleCoin ke ek toss ke liye S={H,T} aur n(S)=2.

Sahi sample space do rules follow karta hai:

  • Kuch chhoota nahi: har possible outcome shaamil hai.
  • Kuch dohraaya nahi: har outcome theek ek baar list hai.
Table 7.3Kuch experiments aur unke sample spacesNCERT p. 166
ExperimentSample space Sn(S)
Kya kal school bus time par aayegi?{on time,late}2
Ek team ke liye Test match ka result{win,loss,draw,tie}4
Red, green aur blue sectors wala spinner ghumaana{R,G,B}3
₹1 aur ₹2 ke coin ek saath toss karna{HH,HT,TH,TT}4
Do dice roll karna36 ordered pairs, (1,1) se (6,6) tak36

Do coins ko dekho. HT ka matlab hai “₹1 coin heads, ₹2 coin tails”, jabki TH iska ulta hai. Yeh alag outcomes hain, chahe coins ek jaise dikhein: socho ki unmein se ek paint kiya hua hai. Sirf “do heads, do tails, ek-ek” list karne se do outcomes ek mein dab jaayenge, aur woh teen results equally likely nahi honge.

Do dice ke liye sample space list karne ka sabse saaf tareeka grid hai. Fig. 7.11 ka har cell ek outcome hai: pehla number pehle die ka hai aur doosra number doosre die ka.

3/4Chhe cells 7 dete hain: P=636=16.

Fig. 7.11Ek grid do dice ke saare 36 outcomes list karta hai. Sums equally likely nahi hain.NCERT p. 166

Ek grid ke upar pehle die ke numbers 1 se 6 aur side mein doosre die ke numbers 1 se 6 hain, jisse 36 cells bante hain. Step one mein har cell 3,4 jaisa ek ordered pair dikhata hai aur side panel kehta hai 36 outcomes. Step two mein har cell uski jagah apne do numbers ka sum dikhata hai. Step three mein 7 sum wale chhe cells, jo neeche left se upar right tak tirchhe chalte hain, green ho jaate hain, jisse 36 mein se 6, yaani ek-chhatha probability milti hai. Step four mein sirf do corner cells, sums 2 aur 12 wale, highlight hote hain: dono ek-ek cell, isliye har sum ki probability 36 mein se 1 hai.

Quick check
3 mein se 1
Ek coin toss kiya jaata hai aur 1 se 5 tak number wale paanch barabar sectors ka ek spinner ghumaaya jaata hai. Sample space mein kitne elements hain?
Answer dekho

Answer 10

Coin ke 2 results mein se har ek spinner ke 5 results mein se har ek ke saath jud sakta hai: 2×5=10.

7.3.2 Events

Aksar hamein ek outcome ki nahi, balki outcomes ke group ki fikr hoti hai: “ek even number”, “kam se kam ek head”, “ek vowel”. Aisa group ek event (घटना) hai.

Definition
Event

Random experiment ke outcomes ka koi bhi collection, yaani sample space ka ek subset. Event tab hota hai jab outcome uske elements mein se ek ho.

ExampleDie ke ek roll ke liye event “ek even number” E={2,4,6} hai.

Fig. 7.12 die ke ek roll ke chaar events dikhata hai. Do khaas events alag dikhte hain. Jis event mein koi outcome hi nahi, jaise “6 se bada number”, woh impossible hai aur uski probability 0 hai. Poore sample space se bana event certain hai aur uski probability 1 hai.

2/5Prime number: A={2,3,5}.

Fig. 7.12Events sample space ke subsets hain, empty set se lekar poore S tak.NCERT p. 167

S label wale ek bade rectangle mein die ke chhe faces hain, ek se chhe tak. Pehle step mein sirf sample space dikhta hai, n of S barabar 6 ke saath. Doosre step mein event A, ek prime number, 2, 3 aur 5 ke gird green circle se ghera jaata hai, aur P of A teen-bata-chhe, yaani aadha hai. Teesre step mein event B, 3 ka multiple, 3 aur 6 ke gird pink circle se ghera jaata hai, probability ek-tihaai ke saath. Chauthe step mein event C, 6 se bada number, kuch bhi nahi gherta: faces fade ho jaate hain, C empty set hai aur uski probability 0 hai. Aakhri step mein event D, 7 se chhota number, saare chhe faces ko gherta hai, isliye D barabar S hai aur uski probability 1 hai.

Jab outcomes equally likely hon, to kisi event ki probability bas sample space ka woh hissa hai jo event gherta hai.

Event ki probability
P(E)=n(E)n(S)
jahan
n(E)
event mein outcomes ki sankhya
n(S)
sample space mein outcomes ki sankhya
Table 7.4Subsets ki tarah likhe gaye eventsNCERT p. 167
ExperimentEventSet ki tarah
Do coins toss karnatheek ek head{HT,TH}
Ek die roll karnaprime number{2,3,5}
Carrot, tomato, potato aur spinach mein se ek sabzi chunnazameen ke neeche ugti hai{carrot,potato}
Do dice roll karnadouble{(1,1),(2,2),…,(6,6)}
Quick check
4 mein se 1
Event sample space ka ek hai.
Answer dekho

Answer subset

Event S mein se chune gaye outcomes ka collection hai, isliye yeh S ka subset hai.
Practice · 3 questions

Practice 7.3: answers ke saath

  1. Quick answerEasyNCERT Exercise Set 7.3, Q1

    Ek spinner ke 1 se 9 tak number wale nau barabar sectors hain. Ek spin ke sample space mein kitne outcomes hain?

    Answer dekho

    Answer 9

    Har sector ka ek outcome hai, isliye n(S)=9.
  2. Short answerMediumNCERT Exercise Set 7.3, Q2

    Har experiment ka sample space likho.

    1. Red, green aur blue sectors wala spinner ghumaaya jaata hai aur ek coin toss kiya jaata hai.

      Solution dikhao

      Har colour ko har face ke saath jodo: S={RH,RT,GH,GT,BH,BT}, isliye n(S)=6.

    2. −3≤x≤3 wala ek integer x random chuna jaata hai.

      Solution dikhao

      S={−3,−2,−1,0,1,2,3}. 0 ko shaamil karna mat bhoolo, jisse n(S)=7 milta hai.

    3. Ek bag mein 4 white aur 6 black counters hain, aur ek counter nikaala jaata hai.

      Solution dikhao

      Agar hum sirf colour record karein, to S={white,black}, lekin yeh do outcomes equally likely nahi hain. Ginti use karne ke liye counters ko W1,…,W4 aur B1,…,B6 label karo. Tab S mein 10 equally likely elements hain.

  3. Short answerEasyNCERT Exercise Set 7.3, Q3

    School fete mein tum ek mithai (jalebi ya rasgulla) aur ek drink (nimbu pani, chaas ya coconut water) chunte ho.

    1. Mithai-aur-drink ke saare choices ka sample space list karo.

      Solution dikhao

      Jalebi ke liye J, rasgulla ke liye R aur drinks ke liye N, C, W likho. Tab S={JN,JC,JW,RN,RC,RW}: 6 combinations.

    2. Event “drink chaas hai” list karo.

      Solution dikhao

      {JC,RC}: 6 combinations mein se 2.

7.4 Tree diagrams

Kuch experiments stages mein hote hain: coin toss karo, phir dobara toss karo; die roll karo, phir spinner ghumaao. Yeh multi-step experiments hain. Andaaze se inke outcomes list karna risky hai, kyunki koi outcome chhootna ya do baar gina jaana bahut aasaan hai.

Tree diagram (वृक्ष आरेख) hamare liye listing kar deta hai. Ek point se shuru karo aur pehle stage ke har outcome ke liye ek branch banao. Har branch ke end se agle stage ke har outcome ke liye branches banao, aur aise hi aage. Starting point se kisi bhi tip tak koi bhi raasta follow karo, aur tumne poore experiment ka ek complete outcome padh liya.

Definition
Tree diagram

Shaakhaon jaisi lines ka diagram jo multi-step experiment ke outcomes ko stage-by-stage list karta hai. Start se branch ke end tak ka har path ek outcome hai.

ExampleDie roll karke phir coin toss karne se 6×2=12 paths wala tree banta hai.

5/5Theek do heads: HHT, HTH aur THH, isliye P=38.

Fig. 7.13Start se tip tak ka har path teen tosses ka ek outcome hai.NCERT Fig. 7.6 · p. 168

Ek tree diagram start point se neeche ki taraf badhta hai, aur har branch ki probability aadhi hai. Step one mein pehla toss H aur T mein split hota hai. Step two mein inmein se har ek phir split hota hai, jisse chaar nodes bante hain. Step three mein unmein se har ek ek baar aur split hota hai, jisse aath tips bante hain jin par left se right HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH aur TTT likha hai. Step four mein aathon outcomes ek box mein aa jaate hain: n of S 8 hai aur har outcome ki probability ek-bata-aath hai. Step five mein HHT, HTH aur THH tak ke teen paths green mein highlight hote hain, isliye theek do heads ki probability teen-bata-aath hai.

Example 7NCERT Example 7 · p. 168

Coin ke teen tosses

Ek fair coin teen baar toss kiya jaata hai. (a) Tree diagram se sample space likho. (b) Theek do heads ki probability nikaalo. (c) Kam se kam ek tail ki probability nikaalo.

Pehle khud try karo. Phir solution ek-ek step karke kholo.

Part (c) ko phir se dekho. Ulta event, “koi tail nahi”, ginna “kam se kam ek tail” ko seedha ginne se jaldi hua. Dono mein se ek hona hi hai, aur dono ek saath nahi ho sakte, isliye unki probabilities ka total 1 hota hai.

Tree par probabilities bhi likhi ja sakti hain. Har stage ki probability uski branch par likho, phir path ke saath-saath multiply karo: teen-toss wale tree ke har path ke liye 12×12×12=18. Yeh 8 equally likely paths ginne se match karta hai.

SimulationTwo-coin lab

Do virtual coins jo ek press mein ek saath 1, 10, 100 ya 1000 baar toss hote hain. Ek bar chart chaar outcomes HH, HT, TH aur TT ko ginta hai, aur ek counter compare karta hai ki 'ek head aur ek tail' kitni baar hua aur uski theoretical probability aadhi hai.

Fig. 7.14Do coins ek saath baar-baar toss karo, aur dekho ki kitni baar ek-ek aata hai.
Try karo
  • Koi kehta hai ki “ek-ek” ki probability 13 hai, kyunki result teen tarah ke hain. 1000 baar toss karo aur khud faisla karo.
  • Kaunsi bars lagbhag ek hi speed se badhti hain? Kyun?

Ab tak har stage ek naya toss tha. Agar pehla stage yeh badal de ki doosre ke liye kya bacha hai, to? Tab branch probabilities bhi badal jaati hain.

ExampleNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q10 · p. 172

Bina wapas rakhe nikaalna

Ek box mein same size ki 5 toffees hain: 2 mango (M) aur 3 orange (O). Priya bina dekhe ek nikaalti hai aur kha leti hai. Phir woh doosri nikaalti hai. Probability nikaalo ki (a) dono orange hain, (b) use har flavour ki ek-ek toffee milti hai.

Pehle khud try karo. Phir solution ek-ek step karke kholo.

4/4MO aur OM milkar: 1220=35.

Fig. 7.15Wapas na rakhne par doosri pick ke fractions badal jaate hain. Har path ke saath-saath multiply karo.NCERT p. 172

Left mein ek box mein 2 mango aur 3 orange toffees hain. Step one mein do branches pehli pick tak jaati hain: mango, probability do-bata-paanch ke saath, aur orange, probability teen-bata-paanch ke saath. Step two mein har pehli pick doosri pick ke liye phir split hoti hai, badle hue fractions ke saath kyunki ek toffee khaayi ja chuki hai: mango ke baad, mango ek-chauthai aur orange teen-chauthai; orange ke baad, mango do-bata-chaar aur orange do-bata-chaar. Step three mein chaar results MM, MO, OM aur OO par unki path probabilities likhi hain: 20 mein se 2, 6, 6 aur 6. Step four mein MO aur OM rows highlight hoti hain, jisse har flavour ki ek-ek toffee ke liye 20 mein se 12, yaani teen-bata-paanch milta hai.

Quick check
4 mein se 1
Ek coin toss kiya jaata hai aur phir ek die roll kiya jaata hai. Tree diagram mein kitne complete paths hain?
Answer dekho

Answer 12

Coin se 2 branches milti hain, aur har ek die ke liye 6 mein split hoti hai: 2×6=12.
Practice · 2 questions

Practice 7.4: answers ke saath

  1. DiagramMediumNCERT Exercise Set 7.4, Q1

    Tiffin box A mein 3 idlis aur 1 vada hai. Tiffin box B mein 1 laddoo, 1 barfi aur 1 peda hai. Bina dekhe tum har box se ek item nikaalte ho.

    1. Dono picks ke liye tree diagram banao.

      Solution dikhao

      Pehla stage (box A): chaar branches, idli 1, idli 2, idli 3 aur vada. Har ek se box B ke liye teen branches: laddoo, barfi aur peda. Isse 4×3=12 paths bante hain.

    2. Sample space list karo.

      Solution dikhao

      I1, I2, I3, V aur L, B, P use karke: S={I1L,I1B,I1P,I2L,I2B,I2P,I3L,I3B,I3P,VL,VB,VP}, isliye n(S)=12.

    3. Ek idli aur ek peda milne ki probability kya hai?

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.25

      Favourable paths I1P, I2P aur I3P hain, isliye P=312=14=0.25.
  2. DiagramHardNCERT Exercise Set 7.4, Q2

    Ek jar mein 2 blue, 3 yellow aur 5 white marbles hain. Tum bina dekhe ek marble nikaalte ho, uska colour note karte ho aur use wapas jar mein daal dete ho. Phir tumhara dost bhi isi tarah apni baari leta hai.

    1. Colours ke possible pairs dikhane wala tree diagram banao.

      Solution dikhao

      Pehla stage: blue, yellow ya white. Har ek se tumhare dost ke liye wahi teen branches, jisse BB se WW tak 9 colour pairs milte hain. Kyunki marble wapas jaata hai, dono picks ke liye jar same rehta hai.

    2. Probability nikaalo ki tum dono same colour nikaalte ho.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.38

      Marbles ke 10×10=100 equally likely ordered pairs hain. Same colour: 2×2+3×3+5×5=4+9+25=38 pairs, isliye P=38100=0.38.

End-of-chapter exercises

Practice · 19 questions

Practice questions answers ke saath (NCERT “End-of-chapter exercises”)

Questions 1 se 16 wahi skills practise karate hain jo NCERT ki end-of-chapter exercises mein hain, naye numbers aur situations ke saath. Questions 9 se 16 thode zyada challenging hain. Questions 17 se 19 jaldi wale extra checks hain.

  1. Short answerEasyNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q1

    Khaali jagah bharo.

    1. Jo event hona pakka hai, uski probability hoti hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 1

      Certain events scale ke sabse upar hote hain: probability 1.
    2. Random experiment ke har ek possible result ko kehte hain.

      Answer dekho

      Answer outcome

      Ek possible result outcome hai; sab milkar sample space banate hain.
    3. Ek ordinary die se 7 roll karne ki probability hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0

      Kisi face par 7 nahi hai, isliye event impossible hai: probability 0.
    4. Ek fair spinner ke 5 barabar sectors hain, jinmein se ek red hai. Uske red par rukne ki probability hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 1/5

      Paanch mein se ek favourable sector: 15=0.2.
  2. Short answerEasyNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q2

    Ek bus stop par 80 logon se poochha gaya ki kya woh roz chai peete hain, aur 28 ne haan kaha.

    1. Number 28 “roz chai peeta hai” ki hai, aur 2880 uski hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer (1) frequency, (2) relative frequency

      Frequency ek count hai. Relative frequency count ko observations ki total sankhya se divide karti hai.
    2. Relative frequency ko decimal mein likho.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.35

      2880=0.35.
  3. Quick answerMediumNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q3

    Inmein se kin experiments ke outcomes equally likely hain? Jitne sahi hain, sab chuno.

    Saare sahi options chuno
    Answer dekho
    Answer
    • (B) 5 barabar sectors wala spinner ghumaaya jaata hai: woh 1, 2, 3, 4 ya 5 par rukta hai.
    • (D) Achhe se shuffle kiye 52 cards ke pack se ek card nikaala jaata hai: woh red hai ya black.
    Spinner ke sectors barabar hain, aur pack mein 26 red aur 26 black cards hain. Drawing pin symmetric nahi hai, bag mein white se teen guna red balls hain, aur pass hona taiyaari par depend karta hai, symmetry par nahi.
  4. NumericalMediumNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q4

    Sample space likho, phir har probability decimal mein nikaalo.

    1. Do coins toss kiye jaate hain. Dono par same face aane ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.5

      S={HH,HT,TH,TT}. Same face ={HH,TT}, isliye P=24=0.5.
    2. 1 se 20 tak number wale bees cards shuffle karke ek nikaala jaata hai. 3 ke multiple ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.3

      S={1,2,…,20}. 3 ke multiples 3, 6, 9, 12, 15 aur 18 hain, kul chhe, isliye P=620=0.3.
    3. Die ek baar roll karo. 3 se chhota number aane ka chance nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.3333

      S={1,2,3,4,5,6} aur event {1,2} hai, isliye P=26=13≈0.333.
    4. Ek bag mein 4 yellow, 3 green aur 5 purple balls hain, aur random ek nikaali jaati hai. Probability nikaalo ki woh green nahi hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.75

      12 balls hain, aur unmein se 9 green nahi hain: 912=0.75.
    5. Teen coins ek saath toss kiye jaate hain. Theek ek head ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.375

      S mein 8 outcomes hain, aur theek ek head ={HTT,THT,TTH}, isliye P=38=0.375.
  5. Quick answerEasyNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q5

    Ek pencil box mein chaar pens hain jo chhoone mein ek jaise lagte hain: ek red, ek blue, ek green aur ek black. Bina dekhe ek pen nikaala jaata hai. Uske green hone ki probability kya hai? Decimal mein batao.

    Answer dekho

    Answer 0.25

    Chaar equally likely pens mein se ek favourable pen: 14=0.25.
  6. Short answerEasyNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q6

    Aarav ke paas 3 kurtas (white, yellow aur green) aur 2 pyjamas (white aur black) hain.

    1. Ek kurta aur ek pyjama ka har outfit table mein dikhao. Kitne outfits hain?

      Solution dikhao
      Table 7.5Saare chhe outfits
      Kurtawhite pyjama ke saathblack pyjama ke saath
      whitewhite–whitewhite–black
      yellowyellow–whiteyellow–black
      greengreen–whitegreen–black
    2. Woh random ek kurta aur ek pyjama chunta hai. Dono ke white hone ki probability kya hai?

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.1667

      6 equally likely outfits mein se sirf ek white–white hai: 16≈0.167.
  7. NumericalMediumNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q7

    Ek company ne 800 LED bulbs test kiye aur record kiya ki har bulb kitne ghante chala.

    Table 7.6800 bulbs ke test results
    Kitne ghante chala5000 se kam5000 se 999910 000 se 14 99915 000 ya zyada
    Bulbs ki sankhya36164280320
    1. Bulb ke 5000 ghante se kam chalne ki probability ka estimate lagao.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.045

      36800=0.045.
    2. Bulb ke 5000 se 14 999 ghante tak chalne ki probability ka estimate lagao.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.555

      164+280800=444800=0.555.
    3. Bulb ke 15 000 ghante ya zyada chalne ki probability ka estimate lagao.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.4

      320800=0.4.
  8. NumericalEasyNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q8

    NAGALAND ke letters 8 ek jaise cards par likhe hain, aur bina dekhe ek card nikaala jaata hai.

    1. Probability nikaalo ki us par N ya G hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.375

      N do baar aur G ek baar aata hai: 8 mein se 3 cards, isliye 38=0.375.
    2. Probability nikaalo ki woh A nahi hai.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.625

      A 3 baar aata hai, isliye 5 cards A nahi hain: 58=0.625.
  9. NumericalMediumNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q9

    Ek spinner ke 1 se 10 tak number wale 10 barabar sectors hain, sab equally likely. Decimal mein probability nikaalo ki pointer rukta hai:

    1. number 7 par

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.1

      Das mein se ek sector: 0.1.
    2. kisi prime number par

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.4

      2, 3, 5 aur 7 prime hain (1 nahi): chaar sectors, isliye 410=0.4.
    3. 7 se bade number par

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.3

      8, 9 aur 10: teen sectors, isliye 0.3.
    4. 11 se chhote number par

      Answer dekho

      Answer 1

      Har sector ka number 11 se chhota hai, isliye yeh certain hai: probability 1.
    5. 4 ke multiple par

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.2

      4 aur 8: do sectors, isliye 210=0.2.
  10. DiagramHardNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q10

    Ek pencil box mein 3 blue pens aur 5 black pens hain. Tum bina dekhe ek pen nikaalkar alag rakh dete ho, phir doosra pen nikaalte ho.

    1. Har branch par probability ke saath tree diagram banao.

      Solution dikhao

      Pehli pick: blue 38, black 58. Blue pen ke baad: blue 27, black 57. Black pen ke baad: blue 37, black 47.

    2. Pehle blue pen aur phir black pen aane ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.2679

      Path ke saath multiply karo: 38×57=1556≈0.268.
    3. Dono pens ke black hone ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.3571

      58×47=2056=514≈0.357.
  11. Short answerMediumNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q11

    Do dice roll kiye jaate hain aur dono numbers ka product note kiya jaata hai. Ek event likho jiski probability 0 ho aur ek jiski probability 1 ho.

    Solution dikhao

    AnswerJaise, “product 7 hai” (probability 0) aur “product zyada se zyada 36 hai” (probability 1).

    Probability 0: “product 7 hai”. Kyunki 7 prime hai aur 6 se bada hai, ise 1 se 6 tak ke do numbers multiply karke nahi banaya ja sakta. Probability 1: “product zyada se zyada 36 hai”, kyunki sabse bada product 6×6=36 hai.

  12. NumericalHardNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q12

    Sample space likho, phir har probability nikaalo. Decimals mein batao.

    1. Do dice roll kiye jaate hain. Sum ke perfect square hone ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.1944

      Square sums 4 aur 9 hain. Sum 4: (1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1). Sum 9: (3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3). Yaani 36 mein se 7 outcomes: 736≈0.194.
    2. Ek bag mein 3 red, 2 green aur 1 blue ball hai. Bina replacement ke ek ke baad ek do balls nikaali jaati hain. Dono ke same colour hone ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.2667

      6×5=30 ordered pairs hain. Same colour: red–red 3×2=6, green–green 2×1=2, blue–blue 0. To P=830=415≈0.267.
    3. Teen coins toss kiye jaate hain. Probability nikaalo ki teesra coin tails dikhaye aur kul milakar theek ek head ho.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.25

      Outcomes HTT aur THT hain: 8 mein se 2, isliye 28=0.25.
    4. Digits 2, 5 aur 7 se, har digit ek baar use karke, ek three-digit number banaya jaata hai. Uske 5 se divisible hone ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.3333

      3×2×1=6 numbers hain: 257, 275, 527, 572, 725 aur 752. 5 se divisible matlab end mein 5: 275 aur 725. To P=26=13≈0.333.
    5. Ek quiz mein 2 questions hain, har ek ke 3 options aur theek ek sahi option. Ek student dono ka guess karta hai. Theek ek sahi answer ki probability nikaalo.

      Answer dekho

      Answer 0.4444

      Har question ka answer sahi (1 tareeka) ya galat (2 tareeke) ho sakta hai, isliye 3×3=9 equally likely answer pairs hain. Theek ek sahi: sahi-phir-galat 1×2=2 aur galat-phir-sahi 2×1=2. To P=49≈0.444.
  13. DiagramMediumNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q13

    Ek bag mein A, B aur C likhi teen chits hain. Har case mein tree diagram se sample space likho.

    1. Ek chit nikaali jaati hai, note ki jaati hai aur wapas rakh di jaati hai. Phir doosri chit nikaali jaati hai.

      Solution dikhao

      Har stage ki 3 branches hain: S={AA,AB,AC,BA,BB,BC,CA,CB,CC}.

    2. Ek chit nikaalkar bahar rakh li jaati hai. Phir doosri chit nikaali jaati hai.

      Solution dikhao

      Doosre stage mein sirf bachi hui 2 chits hain: S={AB,AC,BA,BC,CA,CB}.

    3. Replacement ke saath n(S)= . Bina replacement ke n(S)= .

      Answer dekho

      Answer (1) 9, (2) 6

      Replacement ke saath 3×3=9 aur bina replacement ke 3×2=6.
  14. Short answerEasyNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q14

    Ek die roll kiya jaata hai aur X aur Y likhi do chits wale box se ek chit nikaali jaati hai. Sample space ke elements list karo.

    Solution dikhao

    Answer12 elements, 1X se 6Y tak.

    S={1X,1Y,2X,2Y,3X,3Y,4X,4Y,5X,5Y,6X,6Y}, isliye n(S)=6×2=12.

  15. Short answerMediumNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q15

    Do dice roll kiye jaate hain aur hum ginte hain ki unmein se kitne six dikhate hain. Neeche ki lists mein se sahi sample space chuno, aur samjhao ki baaki har list mein kya galat hai.

    Solution dikhao

    S={0,1,2}. List {1,2} mein koi six na aane wala case chhoot gaya hai, aur {0,1} mein double six chhoot gaya hai. List {0,1,2,3} mein 3 hai, jo sirf do dice ke saath impossible hai.

  16. NumericalHardNCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q16

    40 cm side wale ek square board ke beech mein 10 cm radius ka circle paint hai. Board par kisi random point par baarish ki ek boond girti hai. Uske circle ke andar girne ki probability kya hai? Decimal mein batao.

    Solution dikhao
    P=π×10240×40=100π1600=π16≈0.196

    Board ka har point equally likely hai, isliye probability board ke area ka woh fraction hai jo circle cover karta hai.

  17. Quick answerEasy

    Inmein se kaunsa kisi event ki probability nahi ho sakta?

    Answer dekho

    Answer (C) 1.25

    Probabilities 0 aur 1 ke beech hoti hain, isliye 1.25 bahut bada hai. 0.001 bhi, chahe bahut chhota ho, allowed hai.
  18. Quick answerMedium

    Fair die ke ek roll ke liye in events ko sabse kam likely se sabse zyada likely ke order mein rakho.

    1. ek even number
    2. 10 se chhota number
    3. 1 se bada number
    4. ek 6
    5. ek 7
    Answer dekho
    Answer
    1. ek 7
    2. ek 6
    3. ek even number
    4. 1 se bada number
    5. 10 se chhota number
    Inki probabilities 0, 16, 12, 56 aur 1 hain.
  19. Quick answerEasy

    Har experiment ko uske sample space ke size se match karo.

    Left mein koi item tap karo, phir right mein uska match.

    Answer dekho
    Answer
    • ek die : 6
    • do coins : 4
    • teen coins : 8
    • do dice : 36
    Har stage ke outcomes ki sankhya multiply karo: 6, 2×2, 2×2×2 aur 6×6.

Chapter summary

Recap

Summary aur key points

  1. Probability batati hai ki koi event kitna likely hai, ek number se: impossible ke liye 0, certain ke liye 1, aur hamesha 0≤P(E)≤1 (Section 7.1.2).
  2. Random experiment mein hamein har possible outcome pata hota hai, lekin kisi ek trial ka result hum predict nahi kar sakte (Section 7.1.1).
  3. Experimental probability, yaani relative frequency, un trials ki sankhya hai jinmein event hua, divided by trials ki total sankhya. Yeh ek run se doosre run mein badalti hai (Section 7.2.1).
  4. Theoretical probability favourable outcomes ki sankhya divided by possible outcomes ki sankhya hai. Yeh sirf tab kaam karti hai jab outcomes equally likely hon (Section 7.2.2).
  5. Random sample se hum poori population ke liye probabilities, aur counts, ka estimate laga sakte hain. Bade, unbiased samples behtar estimates dete hain (Section 7.2.3).
  6. Bahut zyada trials mein experimental probability theoretical probability ke paas tik jaati hai: yahi law of large numbers hai.
  7. Tosses aur rolls independent hote hain: koi streak kisi outcome ka “number” nahi laati (gambler's fallacy).
  8. Sample space S har outcome ko theek ek baar list karta hai, aur n(S) uska size hai (Section 7.3.1).
  9. Event S ka subset hai. Equally likely outcomes ke saath P(E)=n(E)n(S) (Section 7.3.2).
  10. Tree diagrams multi-step experiments ke outcomes list karte hain; start se tip tak ka har path ek outcome hai (Section 7.4).
  11. Jab items wapas nahi rakhe jaate, to agle stage par branch probabilities badal jaati hain; har path ke saath multiply karo (toffee wala example).

Fig. 7.16 chapter ke saare ideas ko jodta hai, random experiment se lekar 0 aur 1 ke beech ke ek number tak.

5/5Bahut saare trials mein dono raaste ek hi number par sahmat hote hain.

Fig. 7.16Random experiment se ek number tak: poora chapter ek picture mein.

Paanch steps mein banta ek concept map. Pehle, random experiment ka box neeche uske sample space S ke box ki taraf point karta hai. Doosre, tree diagrams ka ek box aata hai, ek arrow ke saath jo dikhata hai ki tree sample space list karta hai. Teesre, sample space se ek arrow event ke box tak jaata hai, jo S ka hissa hai. Chauthe, event do raaston mein bant jaata hai: experimental probability, jo data se milti hai, aur theoretical probability, jo ginti se milti hai. Aakhir mein, kai trials label wala ek dashed two-way arrow dono raaston ko jodta hai, aur dono ek aakhri box ki taraf point karte hain: event ki probability, 0 se 1 tak ka ek number.

Flash cards · 8

Yaad rakhne wale shabd

1 / 8
Chapter check
4 mein se 1
Ek spinner 200 baar ghumaaya jaata hai aur 46 baar red par rukta hai. Kaunsa statement sahi hai?
Answer dekho

Answer (B) Red ki experimental probability 0.23 hai.

46200=0.23 data se aata hai, isliye yeh experimental probability hai. Yeh aage kya hoga, iska lagbhag andaaza deti hai, exact nahi, aur akele yeh fairness ke baare mein kuch nahi batati jab tak hamein yeh na pata ho ki kitne sectors red hain.

Apna NCERT exercise question dhoondo

Hamare practice questions ncert.ai ke liye likhe gaye hain aur NCERT exercises ko follow karte hain. Apni textbook ke question se match karne wala question dhoondo; uska answer uske saath hai.

Tumhari NCERT textbook meinYahan practice question
NCERT Exercise Set 7.1, Q1Practice 7.1 · Q1
NCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q1Practice 7.2 · Q1
NCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q2Practice 7.2 · Q2
NCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q3Practice 7.2 · Q3
NCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q4Practice 7.2 · Q4
NCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q5Practice 7.2 · Q5
NCERT Exercise Set 7.2, Q6Practice 7.2 · Q6
NCERT Exercise Set 7.3, Q1Practice 7.3 · Q1
NCERT Exercise Set 7.3, Q2Practice 7.3 · Q2
NCERT Exercise Set 7.3, Q3Practice 7.3 · Q3
NCERT Exercise Set 7.4, Q1Practice 7.4 · Q1
NCERT Exercise Set 7.4, Q2Practice 7.4 · Q2
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q1End-of-chapter exercises · Q1
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q2End-of-chapter exercises · Q2
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q3End-of-chapter exercises · Q3
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q4End-of-chapter exercises · Q4
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q5End-of-chapter exercises · Q5
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q6End-of-chapter exercises · Q6
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q7End-of-chapter exercises · Q7
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q8End-of-chapter exercises · Q8
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q9End-of-chapter exercises · Q9
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q10End-of-chapter exercises · Q10
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q11End-of-chapter exercises · Q11
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q12End-of-chapter exercises · Q12
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q13End-of-chapter exercises · Q13
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q14End-of-chapter exercises · Q14
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q15End-of-chapter exercises · Q15
NCERT End-of-chapter Exercises, Q16End-of-chapter exercises · Q16

Quick check: MCQs

  1. 7.1.1 Randomness kya hai?3 questions
  2. 7.1.2 Probability Scale4 questions
  3. 7.2.1 Experimental Probability: Observations ya Experiments karke3 questions
  4. 7.2.2 Theoretical Probability3 questions
  5. Gambler's fallacy4 questions
  6. 7.3.1 Sample Space3 questions
  7. 7.3.2 Events4 questions
  8. 7.4 Tree diagrams4 questions
  9. Chapter check4 questions
Glossary · 15

Key terms (English + Hindi)

equally likelyसमप्रायिकsamprayik
Hone ka barabar chance hona, kyunki kuch bhi kisi ek outcome ka doosre se zyada saath nahi deta.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
eventघटनाghatna
Outcomes ka collection, yaani sample space ka ek subset.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
experimental probabilityप्रायोगिक प्रायिकताprayogik prayikta
Trials ka woh fraction jinmein event sach mein hua.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
gambler's fallacy
Yeh galat maanna ki koi result zyada likely ho jaata hai kyunki woh kuch der se nahi hua.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
law of large numbers
Bahut zyada trials mein kisi event ki experimental probability uski theoretical probability ke paas tik jaati hai.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
outcomeपरिणामparinam
Random experiment ka ek possible result.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
probabilityप्रायिकताprayikta
0 se 1 tak ka ek number jo naapta hai ki kisi event ke hone ki kitni sambhavna hai.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
random experimentयादृच्छिक प्रयोगyadrichchhik prayog
Dohraaya ja sakne wala kaam jiske possible results pata hote hain lekin agla result nahi, jaise die roll karna.
relative frequencyसापेक्ष बारंबारताsapeksh barambarata
Koi cheez kitni baar hui, divided by observations ki total sankhya; experimental probability jaisi hi.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
sampleप्रतिदर्शpratidarsh
Population mein se chuna gaya ek chhota group, jise study karne ke liye chuna jaata hai. Achha sample bada hota hai aur random chuna jaata hai.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
sample spaceप्रतिदर्श समष्टिpratidarsh samashti
Woh set S jismein random experiment se aa sakne wala har outcome ho.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
theoretical probabilityसैद्धांतिक प्रायिकताsaiddhantik prayikta
Favourable outcomes divided by saare possible outcomes, jab har outcome equally likely ho.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
tree diagramवृक्ष आरेखvriksh aarekh
Shaakhaon wala diagram jo multi-step experiment ke outcomes list karta hai; har path ek outcome hai.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
trialअभिप्रयोगabhiprayog
Random experiment ko ek baar karna, jaise die ka ek roll.Chapter mein pehli baar yahan aaya →
unbiasedअनभिनतanabhinat
Coin, die ya spinner ke liye: aisa bana ho ki har outcome ka chance barabar ho.